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UK economy could take three years to fully recover from coronavirus

Tom Shearsmith
27 April 2020

It could take the UK economy three years to fully recover from the fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to a leading forecasting group.

EY Item Club, an economic forecasting group, has warned that it is likely to take three years for the UK’s economy to return to the same size as the final quarter of 2019.

According to its report, the huge drop in consumer spending and business investment will see the UK’s gross domestic product drop by 6.8% in 2020.

The report has also warned that the UK will face a 'deep, short recession' later this year.

If the lockdown began to be eased throughout May and June, it is predicted that the economy could grow 4.5% in 2021.

Howard Archer, Chief Economic Adviser to the Item Club, said: "The UK economy is clearly in for a very difficult year with GDP expected to contract around 13% quarter-on-quarter in Q2.

"To put this into perspective, the largest quarter-on-quarter contraction suffered during the 2008/9 financial crisis was 2.1% in Q4 2008.

"Our report assumes that the Government's measures aimed at supporting businesses and saving jobs will have a significant positive impact, which is absolutely crucial to limiting the potential longer-term damage to the economy." has released an In Focus report into the COVID-19 consumer, looking at how fashion shopping is being changed for good.

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