In My View by Eric Musgrave: Here comes the new year, same as the old year
“A bit of grin and bear it, a bit of come and share it
You're welcome, we can spare it, yellow socks…”
Readers of a certain vintage may recognise this snippet from Ian Dury & The Blockheads’ “Reasons To Be Cheerful, Part 3”, which, alarmingly enough, was released way back in July 1979.
Almost 45 years on, I am struggling to find reasons for the fashion business to be cheerful for 2024 as I expect it to be another tough year in the UK after a tough 2023. Optimists have flagged up that inflation may come down a tad and wages are due to rise, but the long and the short of it is the cost of living squeeze is still here for an awful lot of consumers and replenishing their fashion wardrobes will be a low priority.
On a wider global scale, the ongoing grim news from Ukraine and Gaza does nothing to lighten anyone’s spirits. Many years ago when I worked for the Amsterdam-based trends magazine International Textiles the leading fashion forecasters always maintained when people were feeling unhappy or worried they concentrated on cocooning at home, not going out in new clothes.
This, if it turns out to be correct in 2024, may help interiors retailers but it is not likely to help shift what is still a very choked supply chain.
The volume of clothes, footwear and accessories in the system, coupled with what I believe will be flat consumer demand, will lead inevitably to early-season discounting. The companies most likely to do it first are the ones that are well-financed enough to do it – Frasers Group / Flannels springs immediately to mind in this respect.
The ones least well-positioned to start shredding margin are the ones that will have to follow the lead of the majors, that is the independents.
Indies are going to have to use all their retailing skills to get the most out of a tight season and a tight year. It seems obvious to state they should not overbuy and they should not invest too heavily in brands, no matter how desirable, that are worryingly in bed with the big players.
Small boutiques need to work hard and consistently at communicating with their consumers, staging live events, giving then a reason to come into the shop – and selling them something when they do. They need to stay agile and responsive and not to rely on the weather to be helpful. Who knows how the climate will behave this year?
Relationships between suppliers and retailers are always put under strain when sales are under pressure. I believe honest and timely communication from both sides goes a long way to avoid grief. Retailers need to admit to their suppliers if they are struggling but they must remember that fashion brands are not banks and cannot endlessly finance small shops.
Fashion agents are often put upon in such times. They do not get paid until their stockists have paid the bills to suppliers. Today agents’ WhatsApp groups keep them all up to date on which retailers are dodging phone calls and ignoring requests for payments. Best to be straightforward rather than evasive.
Pricing is going to be more crucial than ever over the coming months. I still believe there are plenty of affluent consumers around with a desire to buy new things but even the well-off can spot a rip-off price. Indies should not be thinking of competing with Primark and Shein, of course, but they can still ask a reasonable premium price for a premium product. They must stay true to their convictions and market position. More than usual, they will need to “sell” the benefits of the purchase to the consumer as well as selling the garment itself.
Another big factor that will affect trading for the near future is the prospect of a general election this year. Yet again, here is something that will add uncertainty to the public consciousness. The idea we will all have to suffer months of politicians windbagging about hare-brained ideas and barely credible promises in the hope they will hold on to their seat or gain one is not edifying.
I am sure there will be lots of calls for reform of the broken business rates system but this has been going on for years and the topic still languishes in the long grass. Given the fragile state of our national finances, I think it is unlikely a government of any shade will dismantle something that brings in £25bn to the Treasury without a copper-bottomed guarantee of getting the same or more from any replacement.
As always with my monthly columns, I am very happy to hear other views, especially opposing opinions. I wish I could be more optimistic about 2024’s prospects but I am a realist and I have seen almost 44 years of trading in my professional career.
It would be pleasing, however, if the mood music for the industry this new year was inspired by the enthusiastic title of Ian Dury’s debut album from September 1977: New Boots and Panties!!
