Are high heels finally dead? Or have we hit peak 'ugly flat'?
Joke or not, Victoria Beckham posing in her comic-sized Crocs x MSCHF boots has caused a social sensation. The former pop star turned fashion designer is famous for her stilettos, once famously running on a treadmill in her trademark high heels. From her Gucci-obsessed Spice Girl days to her more demure present, she has been one of the biggest advocates for keeping the skyscraper heel high.
Head up, leg out and wearing a black dress, Beckham somehow pulls it off in her bright yellow Crocs collab with the American art collective based in Brooklyn, MSCHF. The boots dropped on 9 August via a quickfire 24-hour draw. They are currently on StockX for nearly £1,500.
What does this signify for the wider footwear market? Well, if Beckham has caved into wearing an ugly flat - she once said she'd "rather die" than wear Crocs - then anything goes.
Victoria Beckham in Crocs x MSCHF @VictoriaBeckham Instagram
The question has to be asked whether we have reached peak ugly flat shoe and is this the catalyst for Birkenstock to issue an IPO and take advantage of the top of the market?
Birkenstock, German shoe brand founded in 1774, is considering floating on the New York stock market in September. Its private equity owner L Catterton, who paid around €4 billion in early 2021, are hoping for a price tag of around $8 billion. That is a serious flip considering the brand hasn’t really changed and or added many retail stores.
Birkenstock sells 20+ million pairs of shoes annually, generating more than $1 billion sales. L Catterton, 40% jointly owned by LVMH and the Groupe Arnault, is seeking a quick exit after only 2.5 years.
Are they signalling that the pandemic boom in comfortable flat shoes is about to top out?
From 2012 to 2015, heel heights greater than 100 mm dominated Kurt Geiger’s sales, generating around 60% of its turnover. The pandemic caused sales of high heels to drop by 65% year-over-year during the second quarter of 2020, according to data from market research firm NPD Group. High heels went down a shocking 71% in the second quarter of 2021, according to fashion site glossy.co.
Brands like Crocs, Birkenstock, Dr Martens and designer fugly trainers made hay while the sun shone, and have replaced heels. Comfort has been the overriding trend, even before the pandemic, and the uncomfortable stiletto is no longer bearable for many wearers, no matter how good you were told it made your legs look.
Sandals now make up a third of Dr Martens sales
In June, Dr Martens’ financial report stated sales of its chunky sandals and shoes had risen by about 50% to become almost a third of total sales. There is a whole generation of young people who have never worn heels.
What these brands have is margin. Sandals are cheaper and easier to make. They also have lower entry prices and therefore can sell more. People now have a selection of sandals in many styles and colours.
One recent positive highlight and potential fight back for the high heel sector, luxury giant Richemont announced that it had acquired a controlling stake in Gianvito Rossi, the renowned Italian shoemaking maison, in a private transaction.
A nascent luxury shoe brand with limited name recognition amongst the wider public, Richemont is clearly hoping to turn this into the next Louboutin or Blahnik. Predicting that people will return to more glamorous footwear in healthy numbers, Richemont must know more than Kering, who ditched Gianvito’s father’s brand, Sergio Rossi, in 2015.
While Beckham thought she was joking, her cartoon boots could be seen as a high-water mark for the fugly flat. Birkenstock’s owner wanting to quickly cash out without doing much to the brand has the feeling of timing. Comfort is paramount in footwear - note how popular the Miu Miu ballerina shoes were.
During the pandemic, high heels became redundant, and it is looking increasingly difficult for brands to convince anybody to start running in heels again.
Main image: Birkenstock
