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UK footfall on Black Friday set to increase by 12.8% above 2021

Tom Bottomley
21 November 2022

Footfall on Black Friday, 25 November 2022, is forecast to be 12.8% higher across all UK retail destinations compared with the same day in 2021, though it is still set to be -7.8% lower than pre-pandemic Black Friday in 2019.

Footfall is forecast to climb +16.3% in shopping centres and +13.2% across UK high streets on Black Friday compared to last year, according to the latest data from retail intelligence experts Springboard.

The gap from Black Friday 2019 in high streets is forecast to be down -9.5%, and also -12.1% in shopping centres.

Black Friday will however drive a +15.9% uptick in UK footfall compared to the previous week, with shopping centres likely to benefit from a +20% increase in week-on-week footfall.

Shoppers are expected to make the most of early Christmas discounts as UK inflation hits 11.1%, securing their desired gifts which may be in short supply due to stock shortages.

With more and more UK households set to really feel the pinch this year, further exemplified by the Chancellor’s Autumn Statement, budgets will be limited. That will lead to shoppers being more savvy about their spend.

However, they will also want to make the most of the festive shopping experience, which was lost during the COVID-19 years, and the attraction of shopping in physical retail spaces far outweighs online this Christmas, especially due to the rise in postage charges and the cost of returns.

Diane Wehrle, Insights Director at Springboard, said: “ As household budgets become increasingly squeezed - further emphasised in the Chancellor’s new Autumn Statement - shoppers become more discerning in their purchasing decisions. This creates a greater desire amongst shoppers to browse and purchase in physical retail stores rather than online, as they are able to engage more fully with the product and feel more confident that they are making the correct purchasing decision.

“At the same time, for many shoppers Black Friday will provide the first opportunity this year to savour the Christmas spirit and to enjoy the Christmas decorations and lights in high streets and shopping centres, particularly as many shoppers stayed away from physical stores over the previous two years.”

In every year prior to COVID-19, footfall in high streets increased on Black Friday by +10%, peaking at +29.3% in 2014.

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