In My View by Eric Musgrave: Things indeed can only get better

Even those of us who were thrilled by Labour’s huge victory in the election last July cannot have been impressed by the performance of Keir Starmer’s administration since then.

It was clear the incoming government inherited a vast pile of very large problems from the previous lot, but having been in opposition for 14 years I hoped Labour would come in with some fresh and defined ideas, all ready to implement to kickstart the economy and, just as importantly in a superficial way, to lift the nation’s morale.

Oh, well, how wrong I was.

No doubt some bright spark in the Labour re-election team thought it was a good idea to promise not to raise personal taxes. They were probably right to do so to win the votes but in doing so they painted themselves into a fiscal corner that resulted in the onerous Budget in late October.

Rachel Reeves might be the first female chancellor and an economist by training, but neither of those qualities has prevented her from landing on both the retailing and manufacturing sides of the fashion industry a burden that must lead – inevitably – to job losses, shop and company closures, and higher prices for consumers.

To every reaction, there must be a reaction. I cannot see what else will be triggered by higher (and more) employers’ National Insurance payments, higher minimum and living wage levels, and (for many) a larger business rates bill than a shrinkage in the workforce and the number of shop units.

In my interview with him last autumn (before the Budget) LK Bennett’s CEO Darren Topp cogently expressed the difficulties businesses face when costs keep increasing and the consumers’ mood does not make it easy to increase retail prices.

Yet I am sure we will have to see price rises across the industry this year. What do readers of this column think?

I do try and keep positive in my writing (honest!) but 12 months ago in my January column, I admitted: “I expect (2024) to be another tough year in the UK after a tough 2023.” I hate to say I told you so, but I am even less hopeful as this one begins.

The reality of business life will be that many firms will have to run very hard just to stop sliding backwards. Of course, historically there have been worse economic conditions and companies have survived, but thanks to online selling the UK market is more over-shopped than ever. Too many consumers are prepared to shop at the Shein level, which presents very real problems to everyone else.

And discounting is an ever-present epidemic at the branded level.

On 28 January, it will be 45 years since I started working as a fashion business journalist and despite my current gloomy outlook I still take a lot of comfort from the notion that we are an industry of creative people. Despite everything, we should be able to find a way of working and offer a selection of products that appeal to enough consumers to have a viable business.

That’s the challenge.

Back in my September column, I noted: “The UK is in a dreadful state economically (and in plenty of other ways) and it will take a long time and quite a bit of widespread pain to improve it.”

Sometimes the truth hurts.

Let’s hope that around the Labour cabinet table, someone starts singing the 1993 D:Ream hit “Things Can Only Get Better”. It did quite well for them as the theme song for the 1997 election. How odd we seem to have made so little progress as a country since then.

I wish everyone reading TheIndustry.fashion good trading and good luck for 2025.