Footfall across UK retail destinations set to be -62% in peak Christmas trading period

Footfall across the UK’s retail destinations is predicted to be down -62% over the six weeks from 22 November – 26 December, according to retail intelligence experts Springboard.

The forecast is a huge shift from the original Christmas forecast of -32.7% as England braces for “Lockdown 2” from Thursday 5 November, initially set to last four weeks to 2 December for non-essential retailers, though there is much speculation the lockdown will run deeper in to December amid the new spike of coronavirus cases.

Between 5 November and 2 December, 2020, footfall across England is set to average -78.8% with high streets hit hardest with a decline of -87.3%.

On top of the grim prediction, Christmas 2020 is set to be a huge challenge for the retail industry as 63.5% of Brits intend to spend less on Christmas than in 2019.

National lockdown restrictions will now see retailers miss out on the prime “golden quarter” of Christmas trading as non-essential retail remains closed until 2 December at the very earliest.

Springboard warns that if the national lockdown is extended throughout December, footfall could drop by more than -80% - the magnitude of decline at the height of the pandemic in April, 2020.

Traditionally, Springboard data from 2017-2019 highlights that retailers begin to experience an uplift in footfall from Christmas shopping in the first week of November, rising on average by 3% per week, so the lockdown measures look catastrophic for the retail industry.

The greatest uplift in footfall is usually seen in December with an average rise of 11.4% in week 51 of the year, the last week of trading before Christmas. It is therefore essential for non-essential retailers to reopen and be trading by this date.

Prior to the lockdown announcement, a survey of 1,000 shoppers nationally identified that 61.2% of consumers intended to spend more online, while only 20.4% look to spend more in bricks and mortar stores.

The latest lockdown restrictions will see online shopping as the only option for consumers throughout the month of November – with online channels more important than ever before for retailers.

Diane Wehrle, Insights Director at Springboard, commented: “The national lockdown restrictions will now see our struggling retailers miss out on the start of essential weeks of Christmas trading, including Black Friday weekend as non-essential retail remains closed until 2 December at the very earliest.

“Although restrictions may ease in December, this is by no means guaranteed as the second wave of COVID-19 ripples throughout the UK. Most consumers are likely to have completed a vast amount of shopping online in advance and may well have fears of returning to bricks and mortar stores. However, retailers need to be given the opportunity to reopen ahead of Christmas.”

According to Springboard’s latest data, only one in 10 consumers intend to buy more presents, as there will be more focus to "stay home" to enjoy family time as a third of shoppers intend to spend more on food and groceries, which continue to be open and available.

This year, Christmas Day falls on a Friday and Boxing Day on a Saturday. The long- term trend is for footfall on Boxing Day to decline each year due to the growth in online spending and shift towards leisure.

This year, due to the "Rule of Six", which limits the size of social gatherings and the growth in online spending, Springboard forecasts that the decline will be proportionately greater – as it’s likely that the weekend of Boxing Day and 27 December will be used by many families to meet with those they were not able to see on Christmas Day.

Post Boxing Day footfall is likely to bounce back as it will be the first opportunity for many shoppers to head out to stores after spending time with their families.

This will lead to a marginal improvement in footfall in the week beginning Sunday 27 December, with a decline of -42.3% across all retail destinations from -62% over the five weeks to 26 December.

Footfall in high streets will strengthen to -52.2% - from -70.3%, to -41.7% in shopping centres - from -63.3% and to -21.7% in retail parks - from -42.8%.