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Black Friday spending forecast to be 7% higher than last year

Tom Bottomley
24 November 2022

Bargain loving Brits and World Cup football fans are set to boost Black Friday spending tomorrow, 25 November 2022, which is forecast to be 7% higher than last year, according to new research from Nationwide building society.

Nationwide members are predicted to spend more than £319m on the day – equivalent to more than £222k per minute. Last year, they spent an average of £34 per transaction on Black Friday, spending a total of £299m million on the day – equivalent to more than £208k per minute.

The research, which surveyed 2,010 UK adults between 9-11 November 2022, was carried out by Censuswide on behalf of Nationwide, and also revealed that Nationwide members expected to make around 9.5 million payments on Black Friday 2022, compared to the 8.9 million transactions in 2021.

The expected growth, based on recent Nationwide debit and credit card spend patterns, follows last year’s peak in spending as people returned to normality in terms of shopping habits following two years of pandemic-enforced lockdowns.

Despite an anticipated spike in total spending, rising living costs are expected to subdue some impulse spending, with the consumer research showing that over a third (38%) say they will spend less this year.

However, others will use Black Friday as a way to get discounts on things they need and to help spread the cost of Christmas. According to the research the average person will spend £223 on Black Friday, with two fifths (40%) saying they will use it to get Christmas presents at reduced price and over a third (37%) using the sales to help with the rising cost of living.

The top five purchases this year include: clothing (50%), fragrances (36%), toys and games (35%), small electrical items (33%) and shoes (30%).

Black Friday this year coincides with England’s second World Cup game, as the Three Lions take on the USA tomorrow evening. That is expected to further drive spend on the day. By comparison, during the Euro 2020 tournament, Nationwide saw transactions increase by 21% and spending by 9% when England played.

The research reveals nearly a quarter of fans (22%) will spend more on food and drink to watch the game at home, while 13% will spend extra watching the game in the pub and 12% will bet on the game.

When it comes to paying for Black Friday purchases, 58% will use their debit card or cash. However, a third (33%) will use credit cards or buy now pay later services.

After purchasing something on Black Friday in the past, nearly a third (31%) of those surveyed admit to taking it back days later. That is perhaps unsurprising given more than half (52%) admit to impulse buying.

Mark Nalder, Director of Payment Strategy at Nationwide Building Society, said: “While the rising cost of living may subdue some of the Black Friday spending, we still expect it to be the busiest shopping day of the year for Nationwide members.

“Bargain hunters will be joined by fervent support for England as they face the USA in their second World Cup game.

“While many will be tempted by the discounts on offer, it is only really a bargain if it is something you want or need. Pressure on household budgets means that more will likely put their purchases on credit.”

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